The Southeast Asian two-wheeler industry has great potential
Europe and the United States and Southeast Asia, India demand is different, the market contains growth potential. 2022 India, ASEAN, Europe, the United States two wheeler electric bike sales of 0.8/6.9/7.9/0.7 million units, accounting for the total sales of the major markets 4%/35%/40%/4%, 18-22 years sales CAGR of 100%/26%/30%/38% respectively.
Electric bicycle dominates the electric two-wheeled vehicle market in Europe and the United States, while Southeast Asia and India have a large number of motorcycles, and the trend of electrification has initially appeared, and electric two-wheeled vehicles have great growth potential.
Table of Contents
Global electric two-wheeler market sales
Sales of electric bicycles in Europe and the United States are growing steadily. Cycling culture and environmental protection concepts are prevalent in Europe and the United States, and the demand for electric two-wheelers is derived from bicycle riding. European cities are smaller, with a long history of bicycle culture, and the development of electric bicycles tends to be mature, and the electric motorcycle market is dominated by electric bicycles.
According to the European Bicycle Industry Association, the sales volume of bicycles and electric bicycles in Europe will exceed 22 million units in 2021, of which the sales volume of electric bicycles will reach 5.06 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, and the penetration rate of electric bicycles will be increased to about 23.2% compared with that of bicycles.
The annual sales volume of bicycles in the United States is between 15-20 million units, compared with Japan and Europe, electric bicycles started later in the United States, and the consumer group is inclined to cycling enthusiasts and extreme sports enthusiasts, the epidemic since 2020 and the three-level classification bill and other policy-driven growth.
Since 2020, the epidemic and electric bicycle three-level classification bill and other policies to drive growth, according to the data, the U.S. electric bicycle sales reached 550,000 units in 2021, a year-on-year growth of 26%, 2017-2021 sales CAGR of 25.7%.
Analysis and competition pattern of the two-wheeler market in Southeast Asia
The electric two-wheeler market in Southeast Asia is at an early stage of development and has high potential. Two-wheeled travel has become the main mode of transportation in Southeast Asia because of dense population, low consumption level, and less extreme weather, and it is also one of the regions with the highest number of motorcycles in the world. For further information, you can also check the top 10 countries with the highest motorcycle usage.
According to data, there are about 250 million motorcycles in Southeast Asia. Under the pressure of energy and environmental protection, electrification has become a major trend in Southeast Asia’s two-wheeled vehicle market, but the penetration rate of electrification is still low. Japanese brands dominate the traditional motorcycle market in Southeast Asia.
By 2022, Honda’s market share of motorcycles in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand will exceed 70%, and the combined market share of Honda and Yamaha in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia will exceed 80%.
At present, the electrification of motorcycles in Southeast Asia is still in its infancy, and the penetration rate of electric motorcycles in the five major markets (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines) is less than 3%, except for Vietnam.
From the perspective of fuel motorcycle sales, in 2022, the six Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) will sell a total of 12.27 million units.
However, according to the data, YADEA and Vinfast’s sales of electric motorcycles in the five major markets in Southeast Asia in 22 years were only 82,000 units and 88,000 units respectively, and there is a significant gap between the sales of oil motorcycles, electrification has a lot of room for future development.
Southeast Asian governments support electrification and launch favorable policies to help development. For Indonesia and Thailand, where the penetration rate of electric two-wheeled vehicles is relatively low, the government’s direct subsidies for electric motorcycles will help the local electric two-wheeled vehicle industry to start and develop.
For Vietnam, where the penetration rate of electric two-wheelers is relatively high, the government releases the expectation of electrification trend and offers tariff concessions to attract foreign investment.
From the demand side, electrified products are more economical. Along with the improvement of lithium battery technology, the current electric vehicles can already be comparable to 110cc oil motorcycles in terms of range, top speed, power and other performances.
At the same time, the maintenance cost and use cost of electric motorcycle are lower than that of oil motorcycle, superimposed on the purchase subsidy given by the government, the economy of electrified products is significantly stronger, which is more attractive to consumers in Southeast Asia. For further information, you can check electric motorbike in Vietnam.
In addition, e-bikes do not require a driver’s license in Southeast Asia, and can be suitable for groups with short-distance transportation needs but not good enough to use a motorcycle, such as students, the elderly and so on.
Considering the substitution trend of electric motorcycles, the incremental market of electric bicycles, and the natural restoration of consumer demand after the epidemic, we believe that the demand side of electric two-wheelers in Southeast Asia can provide sufficient incentives for the market development.
From the supply side, Southeast Asia electric motorcycle market competition pattern is relatively decentralized, has not yet appeared in Southeast Asia within the scope of the leading brands.
Traditional motorcycle powerhouse electric transformation is slow, some countries local brands rapid development, such as Indonesia local brand Gesits, Vietnam local brand VinFast, Pega, but the industrial chain construction still needs to be improved.
China’s electric two-wheeled vehicle industry chain is mature, with cost advantages, although the pricing of Chinese electric motorcycle manufacturers is lower than the motorcycle battery cost in other countries, expanding exports to Southeast Asia opportunities.
Yadea, NIU and other Chinese brands of electric two-wheeled vehicles in Southeast Asia are beginning to see results, for example, in 2022, Yadea in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, three electric motorcycle market share may reach 10%.
Southeast Asian electric two-wheeler market forecast
The oil-to-electricity conversion process for motorcycles in Southeast Asia is a key variable, with an estimated incremental demand of 710,000 units in 23 years.
Based on the neutral assumption that the major motorcycle market in Southeast Asia is a stock market, we estimate the electric penetration rate by taking the average of motorcycle sales in 18-22 years as the steady state sales volume, so as to estimate the electric two-wheeler market space brought by the oil-to-electricity conversion of the major motorcycle market in Southeast Asia.
The policy support for electric two-wheelers in Southeast Asia is expected to drive the electric penetration rate to continue to increase. We estimate that the motorcycle oil-to-electricity conversion will bring an incremental 710,000 units of electric two-wheelers in 23 years, and the number will grow to 1.87 million units in 27 years.
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The Southeast Asian two-wheeler industry has great potential
Europe and the United States and Southeast Asia, India demand is different, the market contains growth potential. 2022 India, ASEAN, Europe, the United States two wheeler electric bike sales of 0.8/6.9/7.9/0.7 million units, accounting for the total sales of the major markets 4%/35%/40%/4%, 18-22 years sales CAGR of 100%/26%/30%/38% respectively.
Electric bicycle dominates the electric two-wheeled vehicle market in Europe and the United States, while Southeast Asia and India have a large number of motorcycles, and the trend of electrification has initially appeared, and electric two-wheeled vehicles have great growth potential.
Global electric two-wheeler market sales
Sales of electric bicycles in Europe and the United States are growing steadily. Cycling culture and environmental protection concepts are prevalent in Europe and the United States, and the demand for electric two-wheelers is derived from bicycle riding. European cities are smaller, with a long history of bicycle culture, and the development of electric bicycles tends to be mature, and the electric motorcycle market is dominated by electric bicycles.
According to the European Bicycle Industry Association, the sales volume of bicycles and electric bicycles in Europe will exceed 22 million units in 2021, of which the sales volume of electric bicycles will reach 5.06 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, and the penetration rate of electric bicycles will be increased to about 23.2% compared with that of bicycles.
The annual sales volume of bicycles in the United States is between 15-20 million units, compared with Japan and Europe, electric bicycles started later in the United States, and the consumer group is inclined to cycling enthusiasts and extreme sports enthusiasts, the epidemic since 2020 and the three-level classification bill and other policy-driven growth.
Since 2020, the epidemic and electric bicycle three-level classification bill and other policies to drive growth, according to the data, the U.S. electric bicycle sales reached 550,000 units in 2021, a year-on-year growth of 26%, 2017-2021 sales CAGR of 25.7%.
Analysis and competition pattern of the two-wheeler market in Southeast Asia
The electric two-wheeler market in Southeast Asia is at an early stage of development and has high potential. Two-wheeled travel has become the main mode of transportation in Southeast Asia because of dense population, low consumption level, and less extreme weather, and it is also one of the regions with the highest number of motorcycles in the world. For further information, you can also check the top 10 countries with the highest motorcycle usage.
According to data, there are about 250 million motorcycles in Southeast Asia. Under the pressure of energy and environmental protection, electrification has become a major trend in Southeast Asia’s two-wheeled vehicle market, but the penetration rate of electrification is still low. Japanese brands dominate the traditional motorcycle market in Southeast Asia.
By 2022, Honda’s market share of motorcycles in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand will exceed 70%, and the combined market share of Honda and Yamaha in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia will exceed 80%.
At present, the electrification of motorcycles in Southeast Asia is still in its infancy, and the penetration rate of electric motorcycles in the five major markets (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines) is less than 3%, except for Vietnam.
From the perspective of fuel motorcycle sales, in 2022, the six Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) will sell a total of 12.27 million units.
However, according to the data, YADEA and Vinfast’s sales of electric motorcycles in the five major markets in Southeast Asia in 22 years were only 82,000 units and 88,000 units respectively, and there is a significant gap between the sales of oil motorcycles, electrification has a lot of room for future development.
Southeast Asian governments support electrification and launch favorable policies to help development. For Indonesia and Thailand, where the penetration rate of electric two-wheeled vehicles is relatively low, the government’s direct subsidies for electric motorcycles will help the local electric two-wheeled vehicle industry to start and develop.
For Vietnam, where the penetration rate of electric two-wheelers is relatively high, the government releases the expectation of electrification trend and offers tariff concessions to attract foreign investment.
From the demand side, electrified products are more economical. Along with the improvement of lithium battery technology, the current electric vehicles can already be comparable to 110cc oil motorcycles in terms of range, top speed, power and other performances.
At the same time, the maintenance cost and use cost of electric motorcycle are lower than that of oil motorcycle, superimposed on the purchase subsidy given by the government, the economy of electrified products is significantly stronger, which is more attractive to consumers in Southeast Asia. For further information, you can check electric motorbike in Vietnam.
In addition, e-bikes do not require a driver’s license in Southeast Asia, and can be suitable for groups with short-distance transportation needs but not good enough to use a motorcycle, such as students, the elderly and so on.
Considering the substitution trend of electric motorcycles, the incremental market of electric bicycles, and the natural restoration of consumer demand after the epidemic, we believe that the demand side of electric two-wheelers in Southeast Asia can provide sufficient incentives for the market development.
From the supply side, Southeast Asia electric motorcycle market competition pattern is relatively decentralized, has not yet appeared in Southeast Asia within the scope of the leading brands.
Traditional motorcycle powerhouse electric transformation is slow, some countries local brands rapid development, such as Indonesia local brand Gesits, Vietnam local brand VinFast, Pega, but the industrial chain construction still needs to be improved.
China’s electric two-wheeled vehicle industry chain is mature, with cost advantages, although the pricing of Chinese electric motorcycle manufacturers is lower than the motorcycle battery cost in other countries, expanding exports to Southeast Asia opportunities.
Yadea, NIU and other Chinese brands of electric two-wheeled vehicles in Southeast Asia are beginning to see results, for example, in 2022, Yadea in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, three electric motorcycle market share may reach 10%.
Southeast Asian electric two-wheeler market forecast
The oil-to-electricity conversion process for motorcycles in Southeast Asia is a key variable, with an estimated incremental demand of 710,000 units in 23 years.
Based on the neutral assumption that the major motorcycle market in Southeast Asia is a stock market, we estimate the electric penetration rate by taking the average of motorcycle sales in 18-22 years as the steady state sales volume, so as to estimate the electric two-wheeler market space brought by the oil-to-electricity conversion of the major motorcycle market in Southeast Asia.
The policy support for electric two-wheelers in Southeast Asia is expected to drive the electric penetration rate to continue to increase. We estimate that the motorcycle oil-to-electricity conversion will bring an incremental 710,000 units of electric two-wheelers in 23 years, and the number will grow to 1.87 million units in 27 years.