Analysis of the future of heavy truck battery swap
Table of Contents
With the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry, ev battery swapping has gained high attention. Unlike the passenger car sector, which has questioned the swappable battery model, commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks, are very optimistic about battery swapping. 14,199 electric heavy trucks were sold in the first three quarters of 2022, of which battery swapping heavy trucks accounted for about 50%. Heavy truck battery swapping will become the windfall of heavy truck and swappable battery industry.
Heavy truck battery swap industry size will expand rapidly
The price difference between oil and electricity is the fundamental reason for driving the demand for swappable battery heavy trucks among heavy truck operators. At this stage, the price of swappable battery heavy trucks is basically the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles, but the cost of using both is widened by the gradually rising price of diesel.
From the perspective of energy cost, the average annual energy cost of battery swapping heavy truck is about 100,000 RMB lower than that of fuel truck, and the life-cycle saving is about 250,000 RMB. When the mileage demand of heavy trucks is higher or the price difference between fuel and electricity is bigger, the economy of swappable battery mode is more obvious.
Swappable battery heavy trucks’ power throughput and number of battery swaps can improve ROI and shorten battery swapping operators’ investment cycle. Battery swap heavy trucks have a relatively greater demand for battery swapping volume and more battery swaps than passenger cars. Although the single station investment amount of battery swapping station for heavy trucks (around 10 million RMB) is much higher than that of battery swapping station for passenger cars (around 5 million RMB), its annual operating gross profit is relatively high and stable.
Assuming the industry average data, the ROI of heavy truck battery swapping station is around 10%-20%, and the payback period is 6-9 years. When the number of battery swaps increases, the ROI of battery swappingstation will increase accordingly.
The attractiveness of battery swaps heavy truck to both supply and demand will drive the expanding scale of the industry, but the expansion boundary is limited by the heavy truck market. From the prospect point of view, batteries swap heavy truck model has a good market prospect in the heavy truck field, but the market scale of heavy truck and commercial vehicle itself is small, so the total return of batteries swapping heavy truck field to do big.
According to the forecast, the demand for electric heavy trucks can reach 216,000 units in 2030, of which battery swapping heavy trucks can occupy 80% of the share. Industry entrants who want to gain competitive advantage need to make advance technical and strategic layout to capture limited market share by staying ahead of competitors.
Scale and technological advances enable the industry to accelerate development
One of the important limiting factors for the development of swappable battery for passenger cars is the difficulty of standardization in the industry, but the scale of the heavy truck market is relatively small, so it is less difficult to standardize. In fact, car companies are not the main driver of battery swaps industry scale; on the contrary, the layout of battery swaps by a large number of car companies will increase the difficulty of industry standardization, thus limiting the development of the industry.
As Chinese new energy vehicle companies focus on the passenger car segment, the development level in battery swapping heavy truck segment is relatively low, so the entry of battery leaders such as CATL can increase the concentration of the industry in the short term, thus accelerating the standardization and scale development of the industry.
In the field of lithium battery industry, CATL launched MTB technology based on the concept of module free combination, which can improve battery energy density and adapt to complex and harsh application scenarios, and is to a certain extent a breakthrough in the industry’s technological bottleneck.
The north has become the main area of China’s heavy truck battery swapping layout
As the main region of China’s heavy truck market and operation, the north is prominent in the battery swaps heavy truck layout. The battery swap industry in China is in its infancy, and at this stage battery swaps heavy trucks feature pilot cities in Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou, China. In the fuel heavy truck era, northern China has a higher demand for capacity due to rich mineral resources and heavy industry enterprises, so the scale of the heavy truck market is relatively larger in the south.
The swappable-battery heavy truck continues the regional demand of the fuel heavy truck era, and the north is still the key region for layout. However, considering the different energy types, the regional distribution of fuel heavy trucks is not completely covered by swappable-battery heavy trucks.
The winter temperature in northeast China is very low, the electric vehicle range is very unsatisfactory, fuel heavy trucks can not be completely replaced by swappable-battery heavy trucks, so it is difficult for northeast China to become a key development area for battery swap heavy trucks. In the future for heavy truck battery swap layout, we should not only consider the demand for heavy trucks, but also need to consider the geographical factors of the location, and make heavy truck energy selection and layout according to local conditions.
Analysis of the future of heavy truck battery swap
With the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry, ev battery swapping has gained high attention. Unlike the passenger car sector, which has questioned the swappable battery model, commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks, are very optimistic about battery swapping. 14,199 electric heavy trucks were sold in the first three quarters of 2022, of which battery swapping heavy trucks accounted for about 50%. Heavy truck battery swapping will become the windfall of heavy truck and swappable battery industry.
Heavy truck battery swap industry size will expand rapidly
The price difference between oil and electricity is the fundamental reason for driving the demand for swappable battery heavy trucks among heavy truck operators. At this stage, the price of swappable battery heavy trucks is basically the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles, but the cost of using both is widened by the gradually rising price of diesel.
From the perspective of energy cost, the average annual energy cost of battery swapping heavy truck is about 100,000 RMB lower than that of fuel truck, and the life-cycle saving is about 250,000 RMB. When the mileage demand of heavy trucks is higher or the price difference between fuel and electricity is bigger, the economy of swappable battery mode is more obvious.
Swappable battery heavy trucks’ power throughput and number of battery swaps can improve ROI and shorten battery swapping operators’ investment cycle. Battery swap heavy trucks have a relatively greater demand for battery swapping volume and more battery swaps than passenger cars. Although the single station investment amount of battery swapping station for heavy trucks (around 10 million RMB) is much higher than that of battery swapping station for passenger cars (around 5 million RMB), its annual operating gross profit is relatively high and stable.
Assuming the industry average data, the ROI of heavy truck battery swapping station is around 10%-20%, and the payback period is 6-9 years. When the number of battery swaps increases, the ROI of battery swappingstation will increase accordingly.
The attractiveness of battery swaps heavy truck to both supply and demand will drive the expanding scale of the industry, but the expansion boundary is limited by the heavy truck market. From the prospect point of view, batteries swap heavy truck model has a good market prospect in the heavy truck field, but the market scale of heavy truck and commercial vehicle itself is small, so the total return of batteries swapping heavy truck field to do big.
According to the forecast, the demand for electric heavy trucks can reach 216,000 units in 2030, of which battery swapping heavy trucks can occupy 80% of the share. Industry entrants who want to gain competitive advantage need to make advance technical and strategic layout to capture limited market share by staying ahead of competitors.
Scale and technological advances enable the industry to accelerate development
One of the important limiting factors for the development of swappable battery for passenger cars is the difficulty of standardization in the industry, but the scale of the heavy truck market is relatively small, so it is less difficult to standardize. In fact, car companies are not the main driver of battery swaps industry scale; on the contrary, the layout of battery swaps by a large number of car companies will increase the difficulty of industry standardization, thus limiting the development of the industry.
As Chinese new energy vehicle companies focus on the passenger car segment, the development level in battery swapping heavy truck segment is relatively low, so the entry of battery leaders such as CATL can increase the concentration of the industry in the short term, thus accelerating the standardization and scale development of the industry.
In the field of lithium battery industry, CATL launched MTB technology based on the concept of module free combination, which can improve battery energy density and adapt to complex and harsh application scenarios, and is to a certain extent a breakthrough in the industry’s technological bottleneck.
The north has become the main area of China’s heavy truck battery swapping layout
As the main region of China’s heavy truck market and operation, the north is prominent in the battery swaps heavy truck layout. The battery swap industry in China is in its infancy, and at this stage battery swaps heavy trucks feature pilot cities in Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou, China. In the fuel heavy truck era, northern China has a higher demand for capacity due to rich mineral resources and heavy industry enterprises, so the scale of the heavy truck market is relatively larger in the south.
The swappable-battery heavy truck continues the regional demand of the fuel heavy truck era, and the north is still the key region for layout. However, considering the different energy types, the regional distribution of fuel heavy trucks is not completely covered by swappable-battery heavy trucks.
The winter temperature in northeast China is very low, the electric vehicle range is very unsatisfactory, fuel heavy trucks can not be completely replaced by swappable-battery heavy trucks, so it is difficult for northeast China to become a key development area for battery swap heavy trucks. In the future for heavy truck battery swap layout, we should not only consider the demand for heavy trucks, but also need to consider the geographical factors of the location, and make heavy truck energy selection and layout according to local conditions.