Elektrikli iki tekerlekli araçlarda akü değişimi geleceğin trendi mi?

According to statistics, as of 2020, there are more than 350 million electric bicycles in China. Therefore, in recent years, some companies have begun to study how to provide battery life services for two-wheeled electric vehicles, and the two-wheeled battery swap business was born amid the controversy. In just a few short years, battery swapping companies have quietly opened up the market from the group of takeaway brothers, and the current penetration rate has reached about 80%. So, what is the basis for the development of electric two-wheeled vehicles? From takeaway riders to ordinary users, how far is the two-wheel battery swapping from us?

The development advantages of electric two-wheeled battery swap

The development of the two-wheeler battery swap business is inseparable from the combination of technology, policy and demand. The development of lithium battery technology has enabled the realization of the lightweight of the battery, which also makes the new national standard require that “the whole vehicle does not exceed 55kg” to meet the conditions for implementation. At the same time, the takeaway and express delivery industries are also developing rapidly, and the surge in business volume is forcing the industry to continuously improve distribution efficiency. In addition, the battery and the vehicle in the electric vehicle industry are in a state of separation of vehicle and electricity. After a variety of factors are superimposed, it provides soil for the final development of the two-wheel battery swap business in the group of takeaway riders. Compared with the traditional charging mode, the advantages of battery swapping are very obvious. The first is that the battery is smarter. Because each lithium battery in the operating system has an intelligent battery management module, multi-dimensional, high-precision, and visual battery data monitoring and data management. It can run through the life cycle of battery operation, making the operation and management of lithium batteries safer and more effective. So does the battery swap mode also use the shared bicycle mode? Although the operating model of the two-wheeled battery swap business is often considered to be a shared model, it is fundamentally different from shared bicycles. To be precise, the battery swap network is more like a gas station for two-wheeled electric vehicles. First, the profit model is different. Users of shared bicycles are very sensitive to the cost per use, and once the charges are too high, the frequency of use will be reduced. At present, the target users of two-wheeled vehicles are more concerned about the time cost, and the demand for battery life is greater than their consideration of the cost of battery swapping. In other words, the more battery swap customers invest, the more their own returns will be. Secondly, the nature of the deposit is different. After the bike-sharing deposit was initially charged, the user did not own the bike. In the battery swap mode, the cost of a single battery is about 1,000 RMB, and the user can get 1 battery for each deposit, which means that the user can own battery assets, and this asset can be realized at any time. In addition to the takeaway riders running all over the street, there are more than 200 million electric vehicle users in China, which are growing at a rate of more than 40 million users (including car-changing users) per year. It has become a battleground for future battery swapping companies.

How far battery swap popularized to ordinary users

In 2019, governments around China listed the centralized storage and charging of electric vehicles as a practical project of the government. Electric two-wheeled vehicles are not allowed to be stored downstairs or in corridors for charging, and must be stored and charged centrally. And those lithium battery users who buy electric vehicles at a high price, the picture is that they can take the battery home to charge, but now they are facing an embarrassing situation due to safety factors. Under the influence of these series of factors, the advantages of the battery swap mode are obvious. On the one hand, there is a huge market demand, and on the other hand, there is the promotion of the industry by national policies. After the two factors are superimposed, more and more companies join the battery swapping track. The electric energy demand of electric two-wheeled vehicles cannot be fully covered by the battery swap mode alone, and the best mode to solve the problems of battery life and safety management of two-wheeled electric vehicles in the future. It may be a combination of charging and swapping, that is, battery swapping is the main method, and fast charging is used to supplement.

Battery swapping is changing the way of consumption

Judging from the current status of China’s battery swapping business, the biggest challenge lies in the large demand in first-tier and new first-tier cities. However, due to the different management of battery swap cabinets in different cities, the distribution of battery swap cabinets is difficult. The challenge also lies in the need for continuous asset investment. On the one hand, it is the hardware investment of safe and stable battery swap cabinets and batteries, and on the other hand, it comes from the software investment of manpower, technology, and maintenance for the operation of the battery swapping platform. As for when the cost can be recovered, it depends on the operational efficiency and customer acquisition speed of the battery swapping companies. From the perspective of consumers, the way of buying and using electric bicycles in the future may also evolve from the previous “no choice” to two modes. One is to buy it with the electric bicycles with battery, and then configure a battery swapping package, and the other is to buy only one complete vehicle, and then choose the battery deposit + battery swapping package. But it is foreseeable that only when the battery swap network is large enough and the number of people participating in the battery swap is large enough, the overall use cost of consumers will definitely drop. At that time, as a brand-new industry, the advantages of green, smart, safe and portable in battery swapping can be fully manifested.

Products and technologies that plague development of two-wheeler battery swap market

The latest data shows that as of the first quarter of 2022, there were 3,777 electric bicycle fires in China, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. The main causes of fires are electrical faults and spontaneous combustion of batteries, accounting for 62.1% and 23.5% of the total number of electric bicycle fire incidents in 2021, respectively. In fact, the overcharge and discharge of the battery, the failure of the battery cell, and the short circuit of the electrical circuit are the fundamental reasons for the fire of the electric bicycle. Based on the above data and conclusions, the two-wheeled vehicle battery swap method can just solve these problems. First of all, the standard and unified intelligent charger and intelligent battery management system are used in the battery replacement method, which is undoubtedly a double insurance solution for the solution of overcharge and overdischarge problems. The intelligent BMS and electrical cabinet management system conduct real-time monitoring and emergency safety prevention for cell consistency, temperature, fire and other issues. The innovation of battery swap brings users a convenient battery life supply and is a good way to use batteries. Although it is true that I have rarely heard of the fire problem caused by battery swap in recent years, this does not mean that the products and technical solutions in the power exchange method are mature. In recent years, the development of the battery swapping industry has been very slow, and it has even been criticized by many investors. Different from traditional Internet projects, battery swapping relies on both hardware and software to provide services, and hardware has the characteristics of being unchangeable, so the product is the first pass for battery swapping. At present, many of the problems of battery swapping products in operation are the problems of technology and product positioning, so this first hurdle is the main reason for the slow development of the battery swapping industry. ● First of all, a very inconspicuous charging and discharging socket has become the focus and pain point of the industry. ● Second, the charging efficiency and strategy of intelligent battery swapping station. ● Third, battery process safety issues. ● Fourth, the problem of intelligent BMS battery management system. ● Fifth, product production costs, maintenance costs, and product scalability have become the core of product competition in the next stage.

Sonuç

In this period of urgent need to solve the safety of charging and discharging, the battery swapping method has become a rigid need. Its innovation and intelligence will bring residents a more convenient era of long battery life of two-wheeled vehicles.